Weekly financial crisis early-warning system tracking debt, credit, market structure, real economy, and systemic risk. Published every Monday.
The Fed, ECB and BOJ all tightened within the same month while facing weakening or conflict-driven inflation pressure, a policy-coherence risk that heightens the chance of a coordination error heading
Read briefing →The synchronized Fed, ECB and BoJ tightening cycle, each explicitly citing war and tariff driven inflation, constitutes evidence across two indicator domains (inflation_central_bank and sovereign_debt
Read briefing →The Middle East energy shock has moved from a transitory repricing event into an embedded driver of G3 monetary policy, evidenced by three of five major central banks tightening within an eight-day wi
Read briefing →Three of the five largest developed-market central banks are tightening or carry majority market-implied odds of tightening in direct response to a war-driven energy supply shock rather than demand-si
Read briefing →The tariff escalation cascade has advanced to rung T4 with confirmed multi-partner active retaliation, a durable structural shift rather than episodic trade friction
Read briefing →The Federal Reserve's internal hawkish dissent bloc has grown to its largest size in a decade even as market pricing has moved toward pricing out a September hike, creating a MATT-style divergence tha
Read briefing →The stagflation regime is confirmed with high conviction as three of five major central banks explicitly cite supply-shock inflation alongside cut global growth forecasts.
Read briefing →The stagflation regime is confirmed with high conviction as three of five major central banks explicitly cite supply-shock inflation alongside cut global growth forecasts.
Read briefing →The tariff cascade remains structurally elevated despite repeated court losses, as the administration continues to pursue new legal authorities rather than retreating from the underlying policy object
Read briefing →The simultaneous deployment of Section 301 forced-labor tariffs and Section 338 against Canada represents a structural escalation in the legal architecture of US tariff policy, raising both retaliatio
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