Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 27 August 2026
The 2026 Iran war reignited after the US-Iran negotiation deadline expired August 17, drawing Houthi forces into direct combat
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Weekly early-warning intelligence on armed conflict trajectories, military escalation risks, and the geopolitical conditions driving them. Published every Sunday.
Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 18 August 2026
Iran ceasefire remains fragile as JCPOA snapback deadline nears, raising Iranian NPT withdrawal risk
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Iran ceasefire remains fragile as JCPOA snapback deadline nears, raising Iranian NPT withdrawal risk
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 2 August 2026
RSF masses forces around El Obeid as Kordofan drone strikes kill 114 civilians, 63 of them children
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 30 July 2026
The 8 April US-Iran memorandum of understanding is fraying, with strikes resumed in the Strait of Hormuz and a new Gulf R4 bloc formed outside US security guarantees
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 5 July 2026
IRGC struck two commercial vessels in Strait of Hormuz (25-27 June), triggering four-day US-Iran military exchange and exposing fragility of 17 June MoU
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 28 June 2026
Iran-US Islamabad MOU enters fragile implementation with Iran resuming selective attacks on commercial vessels below ceasefire-restart threshold
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 21 June 2026
Sudan: SAF air campaign intensifies ahead of August Darfur offensive as RSF drone strikes trigger first Sudan-Ethiopia diplomatic rupture and ambassador recall
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 17 June 2026
Iran and Iraq-based proxies resumed attacks on Gulf states including UAE and Kuwait in May 2026 despite nominal US-Iran ceasefire
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 7 June 2026
Israel kills Hamas military intelligence chief Mohammed Odeh and expands Yellow Line control to 58% of Gaza amid deadlocked disarmament talks
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