Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 5 July 2026
IRGC struck two commercial vessels in Strait of Hormuz (25-27 June), triggering four-day US-Iran military exchange and exposing fragility of 17 June MoU
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Weekly early-warning intelligence on armed conflict trajectories, military escalation risks, and the geopolitical conditions driving them. Published every Sunday.
Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 28 June 2026
Iran-US Islamabad MOU enters fragile implementation with Iran resuming selective attacks on commercial vessels below ceasefire-restart threshold
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Sudan: SAF air campaign intensifies ahead of August Darfur offensive as RSF drone strikes trigger first Sudan-Ethiopia diplomatic rupture and ambassador recall
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Iran and Iraq-based proxies resumed attacks on Gulf states including UAE and Kuwait in May 2026 despite nominal US-Iran ceasefire
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Israel kills Hamas military intelligence chief Mohammed Odeh and expands Yellow Line control to 58% of Gaza amid deadlocked disarmament talks
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 4 June 2026
Israel kills Hamas military intelligence chief Mohammed Odeh and expands Yellow Line control to 58% of Gaza amid deadlocked disarmament talks
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 31 May 2026
Israel escalates Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 30 May 2026
Israel escalates Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 28 May 2026
Israel escalates Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 24 May 2026
Israel intensifies Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated
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