Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 23 May 2026
Israel intensifies Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated
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Weekly early-warning intelligence on armed conflict trajectories, military escalation risks, and the geopolitical conditions driving them. Published every Sunday.
Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 19 May 2026
Israel intensifies Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 17 May 2026
Israel intensifies Gaza attacks 35% in April as Hamas rejects disarmament; ceasefire collapse risk elevated
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — 16 May 2026
Russia conducted its deadliest civilian strike wave of 2026 in the days preceding the Trump-brokered 9-11 May Victory Day ceasefire, killing at least 73 civilians and injuring over 400 across eastern
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 12 May 2026
Israel expands territorial control to 58% of Gaza as Hamas rejects disarmament; April deadliest month of 2026
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 9 May 2026
Israel expands territorial control to 58% of Gaza as Hamas rejects disarmament; April deadliest month of 2026
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 5 May 2026
Sudan civil war enters multi-front expansion phase as RSF and SPLM-N advance on Blue Nile capital Damazin while SAF targets RSF gold mines and resumes manned airstrikes in Kordofan
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 30 April 2026
JNIM-Tuareg forces strike Mali capital Bamako killing Defense Minister in major Sahel escalation
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 19 April 2026
Direct military exchanges between Iran-US-Israel on Apr 19 with Houthi Red Sea threats risk regional widening
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 18 April 2026
Hormuz closure constitutes largest oil disruption risk amid sustained I2/I4 Red levels despite F3/F4 flags
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