Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 9 May 2026
Israel expands territorial control to 58% of Gaza as Hamas rejects disarmament; April deadliest month of 2026
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Weekly early-warning intelligence on armed conflict trajectories, military escalation risks, and the geopolitical conditions driving them. Published every Sunday.
Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 5 May 2026
Sudan civil war enters multi-front expansion phase as RSF and SPLM-N advance on Blue Nile capital Damazin while SAF targets RSF gold mines and resumes manned airstrikes in Kordofan
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 30 April 2026
JNIM-Tuareg forces strike Mali capital Bamako killing Defense Minister in major Sahel escalation
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 19 April 2026
Direct military exchanges between Iran-US-Israel on Apr 19 with Houthi Red Sea threats risk regional widening
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 18 April 2026
Hormuz closure constitutes largest oil disruption risk amid sustained I2/I4 Red levels despite F3/F4 flags
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 13 April 2026
No dominant conflict signal identified; all theatres stable with no new Tier 1 verified developments.
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 12 April 2026
No verified escalation signals exceed baseline in provided documents this week.
Read briefing →Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 30 March 2026
Sudan drives the week's highest escalation signal — RSF capture of Kurmuk displaced 73,000 people in a single event, with indicators for rhetoric, economic warfare, diplomacy, and displacement all above initial baseline simultaneously.
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