Weekly early-warning intelligence on democratic backsliding, institutional erosion, and state capture — tracking V-Dem and Freedom House signals before annual indices catch up. Published every Monday.
The Polish Constitutional Tribunal standoff has entered a phase where both the executive and presidency deploy legitimacy-contesting tactics against each other, complicating any external assessment of
Read briefing →A legal-authoritarianism pattern combining foreign-agent legislation, judicial or prosecutorial capture, and press closure recurred independently across Uganda, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Serbia this cy
Read briefing →A legal-authoritarianism pattern combining foreign-agent legislation, judicial or prosecutorial capture, and press closure recurred independently across Uganda, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Serbia this cy
Read briefing →Uganda shift from legalistic capture to overt military coercion of the press signals evolving succession-era authoritarian consolidation.
Read briefing →Hungary Tisza government demonstrates a viable operational model for post-election reversal of executive-aggrandized media capture, though durability across at least two further reporting cycles remai
Read briefing →The EU Cluster 3 accession block against Serbia demonstrates that EU conditionality mechanisms are becoming operational rather than purely rhetorical, but the parallel Georgia case shows conditionalit
Read briefing →The EU Cluster 3 accession block against Serbia demonstrates that EU conditionality mechanisms are becoming operational rather than purely rhetorical, but the parallel Georgia case shows conditionalit
Read briefing →US federal election-administration oversight capacity is being eroded through personnel removal rather than legislative repeal, a piecemeal institutional-capture pattern consistent with contemporary b
Read briefing →Georgia's foreign-agent regime has crossed from legal threat to operational civil society liquidation, confirming full maturation of the Russian legislative template.
Read briefing →Uganda military seizure of Nation Media Group represents a qualitative escalation from regulatory harassment to direct military control of media infrastructure, establishing a precedent that military
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