1. Data Collection

The report tracks 24 indicators across six domains, each sourced from a named primary publisher. Data is gathered weekly; each indicator receives a three-level flag relative to its documented crisis threshold.

Domain	Indicators	Primary Sources
§I Debt & Sovereign	US debt/deficit, JGB yields, EM distress, custody migration, gold-reserve ratio	BPC, CBO, YCharts, World Gold Council, IIF
§II Banking & Credit	SLOOS, CRE delinquency, G-SIB capital, private credit/NBFI	Federal Reserve, Trepp, S&P Global, BPI
§III Market Structure	VIX, Treasury liquidity, margin debt, FX swap basis, M2/Real M2	CBOE, TBAC, FINRA, Reuters, Fed H.6
§IV Real Economy	ISM PMI, jobless claims, Cass Freight, consumer confidence, earnings revisions	ISM, BLS, Cass, U-Mich, FactSet
§V Composite Indices	STLFSI, NFCI, IIF Global Debt Monitor, 0DTE volume ratio	St. Louis Fed, Chicago Fed, IIF, CBOE
§VI Amplifiers	Trump tariffs, oil/supply shock, dollar weaponisation, AI infra debt	Baker Botts, Windward/Kpler, BIS, Futurum

2. Flag Assignment

Each indicator is assigned one of three flags:

Flag	Score Value	Meaning
🔴 WARNING	−1.0	In or approaching crisis territory; direction deteriorating
🟡 ELEVATED	−0.3	Above normal baseline; direction of concern but not critical
🟢 GREEN	+1.0	Within normal range; supportive or neutral

Where an indicator shows both an aggregate and a sub‑component flag (e.g. EM aggregate 🟡 and Fragile Five 🔴), the scoring engine always uses the aggregate flag. Sub‑component flags are discussed in the prose narrative but do not enter the numeric formulas.

Metals note (v2.0): Metals are now driven by monetary credibility and reserve diversification (gold_reserve_ratio_em ×0.40, us_debt_deficit ×0.25, oil_supply_shock ×0.15, dollar_weaponization ×0.20). Equity volatility (VIX) is no longer an input to the Metals score.

Special case — Source-neutral oil indicator: oil_supply_shock is named for the economic effect (price × active disruption), not the geopolitical cause. The Current Driver note records the active cause each week. Formula weight never changes.

3. Weighted Sum Formula

For each of the 8 asset classes, a score S is computed as:

Weights for each asset class sum to 1.0. Score range: −1.0 (all red) to +1.0 (all green). Weights are fixed — only the flags change week to week.

2b. Direction Multiplier (v2.0)

Within each flag level, the Direction field slightly scales each indicator's contribution before summing:

Direction	Multiplier
DETERIORATING	× 1.1
IMPROVING	× 0.9
STABLE or BIFURCATED	× 1.0

Final asset scores are capped between −1.0 and +1.0.

Example — Real Estate:

Indicator	Flag	Score	Weight	Contribution
cre_delinquency	🔴	−1.0	× 0.40	= −0.40
private_credit_nbfi	🔴	−1.0	× 0.30	= −0.30
fed_sloos	🟢	+1.0	× 0.15	= +0.15
gsib_capital	🟡	−0.3	× 0.15	= −0.045
Total S				= −0.59

4. Outlook Labels

Score Range	Outlook
+0.50 to +1.00	BULLISH
+0.10 to +0.49	MILD POSITIVE
−0.09 to +0.09	NEUTRAL
−0.10 to −0.49	MILD NEGATIVE
−0.50 to −1.00	BEARISH

5. Conviction Calculation

Conviction measures how internally consistent the formula indicators are — i.e. how much they agree with each other.

Method: Count the flags used in the formula. Find the percentage in the single largest group (all-red, all-yellow, or all-green).

Dominant Group %	Conviction Level
> 80%	HIGH CONVICTION
50% – 80%	MEDIUM CONVICTION
No group reaches 50%	LOW — BIFURCATED

A HIGH CONVICTION score means the indicators pull strongly in one direction — the outlook label is more reliable. LOW — BIFURCATED means genuinely mixed inputs; the score is driven by offsetting forces, not absence of signal. Bifurcated scores warrant more qualitative judgement.

6. Tactical Alerts

Two alert tiers are triggered based on week-on-week score changes:

Tier	Condition	Meaning
👁 WATCH	|Δ| ≥ 0.45	Meaningful shift; monitor closely
⚡ CRITICAL	|Δ| ≥ 0.60	Regime shift signal; act on positioning

At this threshold, at least one major indicator has flipped between 🔴 and 🟢 — or several indicators have shifted simultaneously. Changes of this magnitude signal a genuine regime shift, not data noise.

Alert output: Previous score → Current score · Delta (↑ or ↓) · Which indicator(s) moved · Three most affected related asset classes to watch.

⓪ Week of 24 March 2026 is the baseline week. No prior scores exist; no Tactical Alerts are produced. Comparisons begin 31 March 2026.

7. Blind Spot Rules (Automated)

Two checks run automatically each week, regardless of scores:

Important: Blind spot warnings affect commentary and UI labels only. The underlying score uses the mechanical flag value (🟢 = +1.0, 🟡 = −0.3, 🔴 = −1.0) without discretionary adjustment. Any change requires a versioned methodology update.

8. Weekly Update Protocol

1. Pull live data for all 24 indicators from primary sources
2. Assign flags (🔴 / 🟡 / 🟢) based on current reading vs. crisis threshold and direction
3. Run scoring engine — apply fixed weights, compute S for each of 8 asset classes
4. Compare to prior week's baselines — produce Tactical Alerts for |Δ| ≥ 0.60
5. Apply blind spot rules — check earnings and M2 flags automatically
6. Update Current Driver note on oil_supply_shock
7. Update Positioning Overlay (§IX) — Fed Funds Futures and BofA FMS data
8. Update Intelligence section (§XI) — Hormuz data, alpha signals, contrarian corner
9. Redeploy dashboard to permanent URL

The formula weights, outlook thresholds, conviction thresholds, and Tactical Alert delta trigger (0.60) are fixed parameters. They are not adjusted in response to market conditions. Proposed changes require a versioned update to this section.

Version History

Version	Date	Changes
1.0	24 Mar 2026	Initial release. 24 indicators, 8 asset classes, fixed weights. Tactical Alert delta threshold set at ±0.60.

Future versions will be logged here with a summary of what changed and why. Version numbers increment on any change to formula weights, threshold values, indicator definitions, or the Tactical Alert delta trigger.