Weekly financial crisis early-warning system tracking debt, credit, market structure, real economy, and systemic risk. Published every Monday.
The Federal Reserve is locked into a stagflationary policy trap: tariff-driven goods inflation prevents easing, while tariff-driven growth drag prevents tightening. This is policy paralysis, not a neu
Read briefing →Tariff shock has transitioned from uncertainty to structural competitiveness drag
Read briefing →The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents the most significant supply shock to the global oil market in history, with 20% of global supply disrupted
Read briefing →The Strait of Hormuz closure represents a structural supply shock rather than a temporary disruption, with lasting impacts on global energy markets
Read briefing →Liberation Day tariffs confirm worst-case trade scenario at Smoot-Hawley levels; private credit gate events trigger at Ares and Apollo; consumer confidence breaks below the GFC trough to 53.3 — three structural risks that were flagged as probable in prior weeks are now confirmed.
Read briefing →System stress at ELEVATED -> HIGH with zero bullish asset class scores: consumer confidence at a GFC-trough, a Hormuz supply disruption embedding a $15-20 oil premium, and private credit gate risk the most underpriced systemic trigger in the model.
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