Strategic Conflict & Escalation Monitor — W/E 30 March 2026
Sudan drives the week's highest escalation signal — RSF capture of Kurmuk displaced 73,000 people in a single event, with indicators for rhetoric, economic warfare, diplomacy, and displacement all above initial baseline simultaneously.
Inaugural edition. All baselines are provisional (Contested Baseline status). Deviations will become analytically significant from week 13 onwards. Next edition: Sunday 5 April 2026.
Sudan Civil War — RSF captures Kurmuk, 73,000 displaced ESCALATING
RSF forces seized Kurmuk on 24 March, displacing 73,000 people in a single operational movement — the most significant kinetic event of the week and the highest multi-indicator deviation from initial baseline across all eight monitored conflicts. An SAF airstrike on Ed Daein Hospital (20 March) killed 70 civilians. Four of six indicators (I1 Rhetoric, I4 Economic Warfare, I5 Diplomatic, I6 Displacement) sit above initial baseline simultaneously. The Quad mediation framework (US/Saudi/UAE/Egypt) has been non-operational since September 2025; no ceasefire mechanism is active. Sudan now hosts the world’s largest displacement crisis at 12M+ displaced.
OCHA ReliefWeb, 24 March 2026 | Al Jazeera, 11 March 2026
Myanmar Civil War — Iranian jet fuel deliveries intensify junta air campaign ESCALATING
A Reuters investigation (26 January 2026) confirmed Iranian jet fuel deliveries sustaining the junta’s air campaign, raising I2 (Military Posture) above the initial baseline. Over 96,000 people have been killed (ACLED) and 3.6M displaced since the 2021 coup. The junta parliament convened 30 March to elect a new president, signalling an attempt to institutionalise military rule through a managed civilian façade. ASEAN has refused to endorse the election; no independent mediation channel is active. Western sanctions remain targeted at individual level and are being circumvented via the Iran fuel route.
Reuters, 26 January 2026 | ACLED/Al Jazeera, 27 March 2026
Russia–Ukraine War — Spring offensive staging, mechanised assault tempo increase ESCALATING
Russian mechanised assault tempo increased since 17 March, consistent with pre-Spring offensive staging. Ukrainian forces gained approximately 400 km² in Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Russia launched 156 drones overnight 19–20 March. All six indicators sit at structural wartime norm (baseline = level, deviation = 0) — escalation signals this week are trajectory indicators rather than baseline deviations. F4 WATCH: Kremlin negotiating-willingness signals sourced from Russian state media (T3) only; no T2 corroboration of genuine intent.
ISW, 20 March 2026 | Reuters, 10 March 2026
Gaza / Israel–Hamas — Ceasefire holds nominally; 689 fatalities since announcement STABLE (ceasefire)
The post-October 2025 ceasefire holds at low-level friction. OCHA confirms 689 Palestinian fatalities since the ceasefire announcement. IDF maintains 53–58% of Gaza territory. Regional escalation (Iran) has closed Gaza crossings and Zikim Crossing, restricting aid to below half-rations. F4 FLAG: Ceasefire and disarmament progress claims (Board of Peace plan, 8-month timeline) sourced primarily from Israeli and US officials; Hamas disarmament unverified. Displacement shows marginal negative deviation as limited Rafah returns begin — treat with caution given 4-week data lag.
OCHA oPt, 27 March 2026 | Security Council Report, March 2026
DRC — Eastern Theatre — Doha ceasefire violated; M23 drone strikes on Kisangani ESCALATING
The Doha ceasefire is actively being violated. M23 conducted kamikaze drone strikes on the FARDC Kisangani command base. DRC parliament is moving to ratify the Washington Peace Accords (7 March), but MONUSCO’s operational oversight mechanism is not yet functional. F4 FLAG: Multiple ceasefire frameworks claimed without operational verification; scored at verified level (Escalating) rather than claimed level. Washington Accords ratification is a positive signal but insufficient to change the trajectory assessment pending independent verification of implementation.
OCHA DRC, March 2026 | Reuters, March 2026
Haiti — Gangs control maritime and overland routes; 1-in-4 Haitians in gang territory ESCALATING
UN OHCHR (24 March) reports gangs now control key maritime and overland routes, expanded into Artibonite and Centre departments. 1.4M displaced — a 24% increase — though a 6-week OCHA data lag means the current figure is likely higher. The transition from the Multinational Security Support mission (MSS) to a UN peacekeeping force (GSF) is creating a security gap that criminal groups are actively exploiting.
UN OHCHR, 24 March 2026 | OCHA Haiti, March 2026
Taiwan Strait / PRC–Taiwan — Stable; PRC drawing lessons from Iran conflict for air defence STABLE
ODNI 2026 Threat Assessment assesses PRC invasion as unlikely before 2027. PLA air and naval pressure is maintained at baseline levels. PRC-Japan tensions elevated after PM Takaichi’s Taiwan comments. Notably, China is drawing operational lessons from the Iran-Israel conflict for Type 055 destroyer air-defence posture — an I3-adjacent signal worth monitoring in coming weeks.
ODNI Annual Threat Assessment 2026 | IISS, March 2026
Korean Peninsula — DPRK re-institutionalises “two hostile states” doctrine STABLE (elevated posture)
DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly (22 March) re-institutionalised the “two hostile states” doctrine; Kim declared nuclear status “irreversible.” Multiple cruise missile and 600mm MRL tests occurred in March. Trump signalled willingness to meet Kim during a China trip but no policy shift has occurred and no back-channel is independently verified. The DPRK I3 baseline is structurally elevated; the doctrine re-institutionalisation is notable but does not yet deviate from the established high-posture pattern.
DPRK SPA statement, 22 March 2026 via Reuters | IISS Military Balance 2026
Cross-monitor signals this week: Sudan F2-adjacent drone attribution → FIMI monitor. Gaza F4 ceasefire framing → FIMI monitor. DRC F4 ceasefire framing → FIMI monitor. Kremlin F4 negotiating signals → FIMI monitor. Iran–US/Israel direct conflict flagged for potential roster addition (Roster Watch).